Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

History says we can already lock six teams from the current top eight into the finals - and we’re quite confident in picking our six.

See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 5 below!

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How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

All times AEST.

Presenting the new kings of the comeback? The Lions have recorded a V/AFL record eight wins in a row when trailing at halftime , coming back to beat the Bulldogs this week plus Geelong in Round 3, West Coast in Round 2, Sydney in Round 1, and then last year Geelong in the prelim, GWS in the semi-final, Sydney in Round 19 and Melbourne in Round 16. Ideally they wouldn’t have to keep coming back like this, but again it’s the glass half-full or half-empty debate that we talked about last week with their overall form. Is it a good thing that one half of their best footy keeps winning them games? Or is it a bad thing that they can only play one half of their best footy? Their OK-but-not-great percentage reflects a 5-0 team that isn’t super impressive - they look unlikely to cop a premiership hangover but they could still end up like Melbourne in 2022, who went 10-0 after their flag but still failed to win a final that year.

That margin is so misleading - sure, the Hawks technically got it back to the point where everyone went ‘oh man, this could actually maybe happen!!’, but realistically the entire second half was junk time. They were absolutely horrendous in the first half, and the little questions in the back of our heads from their 4-0 start - their ball movement wasn’t as good as you would’ve thought, and they weren’t SUPER convincing against the bad teams they’ve beaten - now make a bit more sense. They seemed overawed by the occasion and did not react well enough. Or at all, really. They can absolutely respond against Geelong, in what’s probably the biggest Easter Monday clash in years, and we trust Sam Mitchell to figure out the tactical tweaks required. And even if they don’t respond, the Hawks’ fixture really eases up after this weekend with games against West Coast, Richmond and Melbourne. We’d be shocked if they were worse than 7-2 after Round 9.

That was a proper quality win, coming back to beat the Crows in hostile territory, overcoming the fact they didn’t get a neutral Gather Round game like 14 other clubs did. At worst they’re buying themselves time heading into a tough patch of their fixture - Hawthorn, Carlton, Collingwood, GWS and Port away - but if you wanted to be more optimistic, the numbers say the Cats are a true contender right now. The ‘premiership window’ stat is a bit funny to work out this early in the season, especially with all the byes, but if you average it out the Cats are third for points scored and fifth for points allowed, smack-bang in the window along with GWS, Brisbane and Gold Coast. A win over the Hawks would both be sweet, and another strong scalp for their growing resume.

It’s not like the Giants did anything wrong; in fact, they did a hell of a lot right in an impressive win over St Kilda (who we think are kinda good). But we just rated the Cats’ comeback win a bit higher and thus these sides swap spots for now. That could change very quickly as the Giants get their shot at the Crows this week, another chance to build their resume to open a tricky patch against the Bulldogs, Sydney and Geelong. As we’ve said before, we know everyone else is just assuming GWS is a (or the ) flag favourite, but we want to see a bit more before fully buying in.

We’re close to putting the Magpies in the top tier of premiership contenders, especially because their defence continues to stand up. Since the Opening Round loss to the Giants, which wasn’t as bad as the margin suggested, they’ve conceded just 8.5 goals a game and look incredibly professional and well-structured. It makes sense - this is the sort of stuff the oldest team in AFL history should be good at, and it’s working wonderfully. They’re absolutely a chance of upsetting Brisbane on Easter Thursday, though we won’t be brave enough to tip it. Either way, if they beat the Lions, the Pies are definitely a big flag threat.

History says the Suns will play finals from here. Over the last decade, 16 teams have been 4-0, and all 16 went on to play finals. In fact just two of the 24 teams who’ve been 4-0 during the Suns’ entire existence missed finals - the Essendon sides of 2012 and 2013, in the season they took the supplements, and in the season they got punished for the supplements. Damien Hardwick’s men should beat his old side this weekend and move to 5-0, which brings us to a growing conspiracy... absolutely, they’ve had an easy fixture so far. (It would’ve been even easier if they’d played Essendon in Opening Round as planned.) This just confuses us - OK, sure, they’ve played a bunch of bad teams. But by definition this means they must have a really hard stretch of games coming up! And after Richmond, the Suns face Sydney, Brisbane, the Bulldogs, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Fremantle, Geelong and GWS. We’ll generously call that eight finals contenders in a row... at a minimum, it’s definitely not easy! (Also, make the pink guernsey your full-time kit. Heck, make black and pink your colours. You’d win over the K-pop demographic.)

Call us Dog-pilled, but we actually feel even better about Luke Beveridge’s side out of the frustrating loss to Brisbane... because they looked so damn good in the first half. Yes, they collapsed from there, but the Lions have made a habit of comebacks from a halftime deficit so they’re not the first team to cop that fate. Plus, if you’d said when Marcus Bontempelli went down injured the Doggies would be 2-3 when he got back, we reckon most fans would’ve taken that? And it’s not like there are other great contenders for this No.7 slot either! Three of the four teams below this spot lost, and the other one only beat Richmond - which should really only be worth three premiership points, not the full four. In fact we’re already quite confident the top six teams in these rankings should play finals, leaving two spots available; and historically after six rounds, we would expect six of the teams currently in the eight to play finals. (Last year it was five of eight, with GWS, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Sydney and Carlton holding on while Melbourne, Fremantle and Gold Coast fell out.)

It’s not just that the defence has been a problem this year; it’s that it has gotten worse compared to last year, when they conceded 84 points a week. They’re at 92 points a week in 2025, which is a problem because while their attack is currently averaging 120 points a week that isn’t sustainable. They can absolutely beat plenty of teams by simply winning a shootout, but not the top sides. Thankfully for them they have time to make the changes required; the Giants then Freo away will be tricky, but they’ve got a few winnable ones after that, and as we said last week their fixture is still broadly favourable. Keep in mind after the bye they’ve got five home games while playing Richmond, the Bulldogs, West Coast and North Melbourne away; it’s set up for them to charge towards September.

There’s definitely something off here. It’s not just the injuries, though they’re a major factor, especially when the Swans had a brilliant run with health in 2024. They looked disorganised structurally against Collingwood, in a way you wouldn’t really expect from a side like this, and given it was a game on neutral territory against a theoretically same-tier contender we’re happy to take a lot from the result. And that result says the Swans aren’t on the Magpies’ tier - and that they’re fighting for a spot in the eight, not for a spot in the four. The next month is fascinating; we reckon last year’s Swans would’ve gone at least 3-1 against Port Adelaide (home), Gold Coast (away), GWS (home) and Essendon (away). What’s par for them right now instead, 2-2? That may not sound like a huge difference but a 4-5 record leaves you with minimal margin for error over the rest of the season if you’re trying to be a premiership contender... the Lions were 4-5 with a draw last year, but that just shows how good you have to be to recover from that point.

Can’t complain about them banking a big win over a bad team, and they’re a good chance of doing it again against the Demons - the Dockers have won three of their last five games at the MCG, and it should be four, after last year’s one-point heartbreaker against Essendon. But we wouldn’t buy into the concept of them building momentum through those wins, or anything like that; we’re not moving Freo much higher than this until they prove their mettle against higher-quality sides. They’re going to get those opportunities from next week onwards, and in primetime too, with Adelaide at home on Anzac Day night (Anzac Night? What’s the wording there? Who knows), St Kilda at Marvel on the Friday night after that, and Collingwood at home on the following Thursday night. Those are the sorts of 50-50 games against fellow top-eight contenders they’d need to win to make the top four.

There were a few strong signs early against the Giants but things quickly got out of hand; the Saints are solid but aren’t quite at that level. Not a disastrous loss but a little disappointing nonetheless. Their run-up to the bye is vital in determining whether they’re actually contending for the bottom half of the eight, or just making up the numbers, starting with the Bulldogs this week - how very St Kilda that they get Marcus Bontempelli’s first game back. Brisbane at Marvel will be tough after that but then things open up. First, Fremantle on a Friday night at home and Carlton on a Friday night at the MCG - two big chances to impress the footy world - before West Coast away, Gold Coast under the lid, and Melbourne in Alice Springs. Honestly, couldn’t they win six of seven? We’re not expecting it but they should certainly be favoured to win three or four, which would keep them in the race.

Holy crap. In Ken Hinkley’s last year, the Power produced the ultimate Ken Hinkley game - with emotion inspiring a result absolutely nobody saw coming. It’s not like Port winning was absurd but being 71 points up in the second quarter was. We’re not looking too much into the second-half fadeout because you’d be excused for taking your foot off the pedal when you would need to give up the biggest comeback in footy history to be beaten. But again, this is the Power in the nutshell; they won’t play like this every week. They seem to need to absorb pressure in order to send it back at their opponent, like some sort of annoying Pokemon move. From 2-3, they have to be much more consistent to be an actual contender.

Kinda hilarious that they have a positive percentage now, but it also shows how competitive they were even during their four-game losing streak to open the season. (And how bad West Coast is.) Even Michael Voss in his post-game press conference seemed to concede that all Saturday’s result meant was four points added to their tally, because we have no idea if the Blues have solved their problems until they play a quality side again. The Eagles game was a no-win situation - it was either ‘they won, duh’ or ‘oh god they lost fold the club’. And the North Melbourne game on Good Friday is that but worse. If they win, well of course they won, it’s only the Kangaroos! And if they lose, it’s a disaster, it’s the Kangaroos! Even though the Kangas are kinda dangerous this year.

Can’t complain about them getting the job done against teams that absolutely should be below them; they only move down because Port Adelaide moved up. (Yes, we know they beat Port. We can’t respect every head-to-head result!) The Bombers could soon have a winning record with West Coast next, and then North Melbourne to come after Anzac Day. Beating Melbourne also had the bonus effect of increasing their chances of the Demons’ 2025 first-round pick, which the Bombers own, falling in the top five. Look, this team isn’t going to be a contender this year but that’s fine; they know where they’re at and it’s the little, positive signs they really need to see. Archie Roberts Rising Star nomination? Tick. Brad Scott realising Dylan Shiel’s role wasn’t working, and moving him back into the midfield with a few weeks of strong results? Tick.

It had to be frustrating for Alastair Clarkson how his Kangaroos let the margin blow out, after taking it up to the Suns for much of Saturday’s game, but it’s still only two bad weeks. They have a few key tests coming up that’ll actually sway our opinion on where they’re at - Carlton this week (which is quite winnable), then Essendon on a Thursday night two weeks later, and then Richmond at the MCG two weeks after that. (Port and Brisbane away in the interim weeks should be too tough though Port are obviously unpredictable.) If they go 0-3 in those games then absolutely we can start to question Clarkson and the pace of the rebuild. But while list criticism is fair because they’re older and more experienced than you may think, just keep in mind this is effectively Clarkson’s second full season in charge, given how badly interrupted his first year (2023) was. It’s a great result if they’re an eight-win team this year, and eight-win teams often have really bad fortnights.

We are already getting to the point where we’re running out of things to say about Melbourne. It’s just the same depressing, low-scoring, inefficient loss every week. Their highest score of the season is 74 points. Maybe there’s a world where Freo’s attack doesn’t work either this week and the Demons sneak home for a win. But it’s more likely Anzac Eve, which has genuinely grown into a mini-blockbuster, will feature two teams with a combined record of 1-11. And then the Dees get West Coast away the week later. They simply cannot lose either of those games or the Simon Goodwin sacking conversation will go into overdrive.

Until a couple of weeks ago we were still thinking the Eagles would be better than the Tigers this year, primarily because West Coast was actually trying to get better this off-season, whereas Richmond obviously got worse on purpose. But, as the Eagles have shown in their brief periods of competitiveness last year, youth is unpredictable the Tigers keep showing bits and pieces. Whereas Andrew McQualter’s side just looks like a mess. It’s not his fault; it’s about a club that took too long to get to this point of the rebuild and thus extended its period at the bottom. How can they have a percentage under 50 AGAIN?! And while we praised them for finally going to the draft from 2021 onwards, it’s worth being a little concerned about the players they’ve actually picked since then (the Reids aside)...