Good morning and welcome to the first of April.Today is no joke. Two vacant U.S. House seats are up for grabs in Florida special elections. The most closely watched is in the 6th District, between Republican state Sen. RANDY FINE (R-Melbourne Beach) and progressive JOSH WEIL, a public school teacher. The other is in the 1st District, between Florida Chief Financial Officer JIMMY PATRONIS and Democrat GAY VALIMONT.President DONALD TRUMP endorsed both Republicans, and Democrats have been using the pair of contests to message against the president, attempting to harness potential voter discontent about his first couple of months in office.With a hectic final two weeks, the races have taken on many layers and players. Here are four key developments to watch today and in the coming days as results (and takes) get posted.What the margins look like. Reality check: Based on early voting turnout and these two districts being cherry-dipped-in-ketchup red, both Republican candidates are favored. With tighter polling and stronger fundraising, however, the Fine-Weil race has received more attention.Democrats have already said they’ll see an overperformance from their candidates as a sign of trouble for Republicans and Trump, even if Fine and Patronis ultimately win. That’s part of the reason Republicans say they’re confident but are still deploying tons of resources and surrogates to the 6th District. Trump won each district by more than 30 points in November, but turnout in special elections tends to be far lower.What the results tell Democrats about Florida. If Democrats do well today, they’ve already said they’ll view it as a sign they’re on the right track to turning things around. But if they end up losing in margins close to those they saw in November, it’ll likely be even harder for them to make the case that it’s worth dumping millions of dollars trying to be competitive in future Florida elections.As Playbook reported Monday, Democrats have been roasting Trump over DOGE cuts, looming tariffs and how expensive the cost of living still is. The special elections will give them a strong sense of what issues do and don’t animate voters, which will help decide a lot of the messaging going into the 2026 midterms.What happens with Patronis’ job. The outgoing CFO has asked Gov. RON DESANTIS to pick his replacement no later than tomorrow, even though the governor previously said he had no intention of making a decision until after the session is over in May. As POLITICO’s Gary Fineout reported, Patronis turned up the heat on the issue by asking that his name be removed from all official documents — which will put pressure on the governor to make a decision so the state can pay its bills.Who DeSantis picks will be telling. Trump wants state Sen. JOE GRUTERS (R-Sarasota) in the job, but Gruters and the governor don’t get along. He could go with an ally like state Sen. BLAISE INGOGLIA (R-Spring Hill), who could run for the position in 2026 as an incumbent, or he could give Trump an olive branch by appointing someone who is more of a caretaker.Whether there’s a political price to pay for crossing DeSantis. Fine is one of DeSantis’ biggest nemeses in the Legislature. Did that hurt him with Republican voters in the special election? It’s possible, given that DeSantis used to hold the seat and also won his gubernatorial reelection by huge margins there in 2022.If Fine doesn’t do well today, DeSantis has made it clear he sees it as a deficiency with Fine — not a referendum on Trump. The results could also be telling for members of the Legislature who are newly clashing with the governor — and serve as a lesson about how that pushback comes with political risk.Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at:.
TALLAHASSEE’S TRIFECTA SPLIT — “DeSantis and Florida’s Republican-controlled Legislature are veering apart on taxes and spending, sending flashing lights that this year’s 60-day session sees severe roadblocks ahead,” reports POLITICO’s Gary Fineout.“DeSantis on Monday countered the Florida House’s newly announced proposal to cut sales taxes with his own major undertaking: a sizable property tax rebate averaging $1,000 to state homeowners that would go out the door in December. That would be followed by a permanent property tax cut offered up to voters in November 2026.“State Senate President Ben Albritton — noting the halfway point of this year’s session is Wednesday — then asked both the governor and the House to slow down on major tax cuts and instead take time between now and next year’s session to craft a proposal.”WIN FOR DESANTIS — “A federal judge has once again tossed a lawsuit filed against DeSantis and other state officials involved in the flying of migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard,” reports POLITICO’s Gary Fineout. “U.S. District Judge Allison Burroughs’ decision may finally bring a protracted legal battle over the September 2022 flights — derided as a ‘political stunt’ by Democrats and other critics of the governor — close to a conclusion.”UNSPENT DEP FUNDS — “State House and Senate leaders are pointing to unspent money at the Department of Environmental Protection to justify proposals to cut some of DeSantis’ 2025-26 budget priorities,” reports POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie. “A DeSantis spokesperson on Monday responded simply that the governor’s commitment to Everglades restoration and water quality remain unchanged.”POT PETITION PUSHBACK — “The committee behind a campaign to add an adult marijuana use initiative to next year’s ballot has been ordered to stop sending mailers to voters and pay a more than $121,000 fine, amid fraud concerns raised by Florida’s election police,” reports POLITICO’s Arek Sarkissian.“Smart and Safe Florida was also behind Amendment 3, a similar pot legalization campaign backed heavily by Trulieve and a handful of other medical marijuana companies which failed to pass in last year’s election. Smart and Safe subsequently launched a new campaign for 2026 in January, which included mailing tens of thousands of unsigned petitions to voters who had also supported Amendment 3.”OFFICIALS WANT MORE TRUMP HELP — “Florida’s new illegal immigration advisory panel is asking President Donald Trump to sign more executive orders to allow state law enforcement to expedite the removal of undocumented immigrants, including those who do not have removal orders or criminal records,” reports Ana Goñi-Lessan of USA Today Network — Florida.
KICKING OFF TODAY — Former Florida Senate Minority Leader LAUREN BOOK (D-Broward) is kicking off a 1,500-mile walk from Key West to Tallahassee to raise awareness about child sexual abuse prevention and to provide support to survivors. The “Walk in My Shoes” trip will end April 30 after stops in more than 20 cities to hold events with child protection units, schools and others.April is National Sexual Assault Awareness Month and National Child Abuse Prevention Month. Book has been open about how she was abused as a child by a caretaker, creating the nonprofit Lauren’s Kids as a response. The group is backing several bills in the Legislature, including measures that would increase penalties for sexual cyberharassment and a bill that makes it easier to remove “deepfakes.”BARRETO CONFIRMATION ADVANCES — Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Chair RODNEY BARRETO won confirmation Monday from a Senate committee after a vote was delayed last week.Senators on the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources who asked to delay last week’s vote said Monday they had been inundated by emails opposing Barreto, a Coral Gables developer and lobbyist.Barreto, first appointed to the commission by Gov. JEB BUSH, told the committee that the agency has battled invasive wildlife species, opened wildlife areas and waterways to visitors and had conserved more land than previous commissions.“I have no clue why they’re doing it,” Barreto said of his opponents.Those critics Monday cited the commission’s move this year towards allowing a bear hunt for the first time in 10 years, his record as a developer and a lobbyist, his agency’s support for an expressway to be built through the state’s Split Oak Forest in Central Florida, and his support for the hunting and fishing rights constitutional amendment approved by 67 percent of voters last fall.“It’s time to modernize the FWC,” critic Leslie Blackner told the committee.But the Senate committee voted 8-1 to advance the confirmation after Sen. BRYAN AVILA (R-Hialeah Gardens) described Barreto’s community involvement and efforts to improve conservation, including personally inviting legislators to the Everglades to see the threat posed by Burmese pythons.— “Florida Legislature shuns DeSantis administration’s cancer proposal,”by Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix.— “State lawmakers are moving toward repealing a 2022 Florida law that shields university presidential searches from the public eye in hopes of undoing a ‘spoil system’ the policy created for some of the state’s top jobs,” reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury.“The issue has emerged as a priority of state House Speaker Daniel Perez, who is supporting a sweeping higher education package this session that would change the rules for presidential searches while also adding new stipulations for members serving the university system Board of Governors. The legislation was heard in the Senate for the first time Monday, advancing with unanimous bipartisan support, as it awaits a final House committee vote.”— “State House and Senate leaders have different ideas for how quickly Florida should ban cellphone use in K-12 schools,” reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury.“While the House is pushing for legislation to outlaw students from using cellphones all day starting in the fall, the Senate contends the issue should first be studied by the state Department of Education. The Senate’s proposal advanced Monday in its first committee hearing, giving the two chambers a policy disagreement to resolve.”
TPS REMAINS, FOR NOW — “A federal judge has blocked the Trump administration from sharply curtailing a special immigration status that protects 600,000 Venezuelans living in the U.S. from deportation and allows them to work legally in this country,” reports POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney.VACATION, EH? “After years of growth, Canadian tourism in Florida is reversing course, tourism officials say and initial data indicate,” reports Howard Cohen and Vinod Sreeharsha of the Miami Herald. “Passenger arrivals from Canada at Miami International Airport are down this year, three weeks into March. Demand for flights from Canada to South Florida has fallen about 20 percent compared to a year ago.”— “Canada-funded billboards warn Central Florida: ‘Tariffs are a tax,’”reports Skyler Swisher of the Orlando Sentinel.— “Tuesday’s vote could ban fluoride from Miami-Dade drinking water. Will mayor veto?”by Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald.— “State surgeon general advocates against fluoride in Clearwater,”by Colbi Edmonds of the Tampa Bay Times.
ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR GOVERNOR WHO’S NPA — “After two decades in South Florida politics, including three separate stints as the Mayor of Surfside, Charles Burkett is setting his sights higher,” reports Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics. “He’s gearing up to run for governor, and he says he plans to put policy — not political posturing — at the forefront of his campaign.”— “Voters to pick GOP nominee in race to succeed Randy Fine. Can anyone beat Debbie Mayfield’s cash edge?”by Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics.
EXITING HFC — “Rep. Anna Paulina Luna has left the House Freedom Caucus, according to a person with direct knowledge of the Florida Republican’s decision,” reports POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy and Meredith Lee Hill. “Luna, a strong Trump ally and conservative hard-liner, withdrew her membership amid a break with her colleagues on whether the House should allow proxy voting for new parents.”
— “Jeffrey Epstein victim, Virginia Giuffre, fighting for her life after car accident,”by Julie K. Brown of the Miami Herald.BIRTHDAY: Former Rep. Peter Deutsch.
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TALLAHASSEE’S TRIFECTA SPLIT — “DeSantis and Florida’s Republican-controlled Legislature are veering apart on taxes and spending, sending flashing lights that this year’s 60-day session sees severe roadblocks ahead,” reports POLITICO’s Gary Fineout.“DeSantis on Monday countered the Florida House’s newly announced proposal to cut sales taxes with his own major undertaking: a sizable property tax rebate averaging $1,000 to state homeowners that would go out the door in December. That would be followed by a permanent property tax cut offered up to voters in November 2026.“State Senate President Ben Albritton — noting the halfway point of this year’s session is Wednesday — then asked both the governor and the House to slow down on major tax cuts and instead take time between now and next year’s session to craft a proposal.”WIN FOR DESANTIS — “A federal judge has once again tossed a lawsuit filed against DeSantis and other state officials involved in the flying of migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard,” reports POLITICO’s Gary Fineout. “U.S. District Judge Allison Burroughs’ decision may finally bring a protracted legal battle over the September 2022 flights — derided as a ‘political stunt’ by Democrats and other critics of the governor — close to a conclusion.”UNSPENT DEP FUNDS — “State House and Senate leaders are pointing to unspent money at the Department of Environmental Protection to justify proposals to cut some of DeSantis’ 2025-26 budget priorities,” reports POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie. “A DeSantis spokesperson on Monday responded simply that the governor’s commitment to Everglades restoration and water quality remain unchanged.”POT PETITION PUSHBACK — “The committee behind a campaign to add an adult marijuana use initiative to next year’s ballot has been ordered to stop sending mailers to voters and pay a more than $121,000 fine, amid fraud concerns raised by Florida’s election police,” reports POLITICO’s Arek Sarkissian.“Smart and Safe Florida was also behind Amendment 3, a similar pot legalization campaign backed heavily by Trulieve and a handful of other medical marijuana companies which failed to pass in last year’s election. Smart and Safe subsequently launched a new campaign for 2026 in January, which included mailing tens of thousands of unsigned petitions to voters who had also supported Amendment 3.”OFFICIALS WANT MORE TRUMP HELP — “Florida’s new illegal immigration advisory panel is asking President Donald Trump to sign more executive orders to allow state law enforcement to expedite the removal of undocumented immigrants, including those who do not have removal orders or criminal records,” reports Ana Goñi-Lessan of USA Today Network — Florida.
KICKING OFF TODAY — Former Florida Senate Minority Leader LAUREN BOOK (D-Broward) is kicking off a 1,500-mile walk from Key West to Tallahassee to raise awareness about child sexual abuse prevention and to provide support to survivors. The “Walk in My Shoes” trip will end April 30 after stops in more than 20 cities to hold events with child protection units, schools and others.April is National Sexual Assault Awareness Month and National Child Abuse Prevention Month. Book has been open about how she was abused as a child by a caretaker, creating the nonprofit Lauren’s Kids as a response. The group is backing several bills in the Legislature, including measures that would increase penalties for sexual cyberharassment and a bill that makes it easier to remove “deepfakes.”BARRETO CONFIRMATION ADVANCES — Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Chair RODNEY BARRETO won confirmation Monday from a Senate committee after a vote was delayed last week.Senators on the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources who asked to delay last week’s vote said Monday they had been inundated by emails opposing Barreto, a Coral Gables developer and lobbyist.Barreto, first appointed to the commission by Gov. JEB BUSH, told the committee that the agency has battled invasive wildlife species, opened wildlife areas and waterways to visitors and had conserved more land than previous commissions.“I have no clue why they’re doing it,” Barreto said of his opponents.Those critics Monday cited the commission’s move this year towards allowing a bear hunt for the first time in 10 years, his record as a developer and a lobbyist, his agency’s support for an expressway to be built through the state’s Split Oak Forest in Central Florida, and his support for the hunting and fishing rights constitutional amendment approved by 67 percent of voters last fall.“It’s time to modernize the FWC,” critic Leslie Blackner told the committee.But the Senate committee voted 8-1 to advance the confirmation after Sen. BRYAN AVILA (R-Hialeah Gardens) described Barreto’s community involvement and efforts to improve conservation, including personally inviting legislators to the Everglades to see the threat posed by Burmese pythons.— “Florida Legislature shuns DeSantis administration’s cancer proposal,”by Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix.— “State lawmakers are moving toward repealing a 2022 Florida law that shields university presidential searches from the public eye in hopes of undoing a ‘spoil system’ the policy created for some of the state’s top jobs,” reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury.“The issue has emerged as a priority of state House Speaker Daniel Perez, who is supporting a sweeping higher education package this session that would change the rules for presidential searches while also adding new stipulations for members serving the university system Board of Governors. The legislation was heard in the Senate for the first time Monday, advancing with unanimous bipartisan support, as it awaits a final House committee vote.”— “State House and Senate leaders have different ideas for how quickly Florida should ban cellphone use in K-12 schools,” reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury.“While the House is pushing for legislation to outlaw students from using cellphones all day starting in the fall, the Senate contends the issue should first be studied by the state Department of Education. The Senate’s proposal advanced Monday in its first committee hearing, giving the two chambers a policy disagreement to resolve.”
TPS REMAINS, FOR NOW — “A federal judge has blocked the Trump administration from sharply curtailing a special immigration status that protects 600,000 Venezuelans living in the U.S. from deportation and allows them to work legally in this country,” reports POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney.VACATION, EH? “After years of growth, Canadian tourism in Florida is reversing course, tourism officials say and initial data indicate,” reports Howard Cohen and Vinod Sreeharsha of the Miami Herald. “Passenger arrivals from Canada at Miami International Airport are down this year, three weeks into March. Demand for flights from Canada to South Florida has fallen about 20 percent compared to a year ago.”— “Canada-funded billboards warn Central Florida: ‘Tariffs are a tax,’”reports Skyler Swisher of the Orlando Sentinel.— “Tuesday’s vote could ban fluoride from Miami-Dade drinking water. Will mayor veto?”by Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald.— “State surgeon general advocates against fluoride in Clearwater,”by Colbi Edmonds of the Tampa Bay Times.
ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR GOVERNOR WHO’S NPA — “After two decades in South Florida politics, including three separate stints as the Mayor of Surfside, Charles Burkett is setting his sights higher,” reports Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics. “He’s gearing up to run for governor, and he says he plans to put policy — not political posturing — at the forefront of his campaign.”— “Voters to pick GOP nominee in race to succeed Randy Fine. Can anyone beat Debbie Mayfield’s cash edge?”by Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics.
EXITING HFC — “Rep. Anna Paulina Luna has left the House Freedom Caucus, according to a person with direct knowledge of the Florida Republican’s decision,” reports POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy and Meredith Lee Hill. “Luna, a strong Trump ally and conservative hard-liner, withdrew her membership amid a break with her colleagues on whether the House should allow proxy voting for new parents.”
— “Jeffrey Epstein victim, Virginia Giuffre, fighting for her life after car accident,”by Julie K. Brown of the Miami Herald.BIRTHDAY: Former Rep. Peter Deutsch.
