The figure has alarmed economists, who see it as the clearest sign yet that the prospect of a second Trump presidency has scared investors away from Mexico. Some U.S. factories along the border have either pulled out, or have taken a wait-and-see-attitude.

While Sheinbaum deserves credit for defusing many of the political bombs Trump has thrown at her government, the real dilemma is that she will likely have to navigate these conditions for at least the next four years of Trump’s term, which could be turbulent.

Moreover, Sheinbaum, while drawing a firm line against any unilateral U.S. strikes on Mexican soil, has repeatedly emphasized her willingness to cooperate in stopping drug trafficking. She’s gone further than her predecessor’s “hugs not bullets” strategy. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s effort focused on what he called the root causes of crime and mostly avoided violent confrontations with criminals. That led to more states falling under the influence of organized crime say experts.

A few days ago, negotiations to avert the tariffs appeared to be going smoothly — until they weren’t. The breakdown came despite Sheinbaum delivering 29 cartel leaders to U.S. authorities, including the leaders of the paramilitary group known as Los Zetas who terrorized cities along the Texas-Mexico border and Rafael Caro Quintero, the much-wanted drug lord accused of orchestrating the 1985 kidnapping, torture, and murder of Drug Enforcement Agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena.

Still, the unexpected dynamic between Sheinbaum and Trump could, at times, work to her advantage — such as leveraging pressure from Trump to crack down on some of Mexico’s most violent criminal organizations, which control vast territories and, in some cases, have ties to high-ranking government officials.

Sheinbaum has an opportunity to shine here, analysts say, but she must tread carefully. Many security analysts believe that some top-ranking public servants and members of her own party have ties to drug cartels — –making this an almost impossible cleanup mission.

“She needs to clean house,” Mijangos said. “She needs to get rid of some extremely toxic people, beginning with some members of her own political coalition.”

On other fronts, however, Trump’s constant threats could become a major source of distraction, pulling her away from domestic priorities she hoped to focus on — most notably, fixing the dire fiscal situation she inherited from López Obrador.

Sheinbaum understands that Trump could reverse course at any moment, making this latest reprieve just another temporary victory. She also knows the battle is far from over. Trump’s unpredictability remains a constant threat, something she learned firsthand. Perhaps that’s why she insists on cooler heads prevailing in the fluidity of the bilateral relationship.

Far from generating nationalism, Sheinbaum reminded her supporters that the United States, which ended up with half of Mexico’s territory under the 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, lent its support on several critical historical occasions.

“I also want to highlight the good examples of respect for our sovereignty from the United States,” Sheinbaum told the massive crowd, listing several actions its northern neighbor has taken in support of Mexico For example, in 1861 when Mexico’s legendary president, Benito Juarez, received invaluable help from his President Abraham Lincoln, in Mexico’s fight against the French invasion. “The U.S. never recognized the second empire” of French envoy, Maximiliano de Habsburgo, Sheinbaum reminded Mexicans in the packed Zocalo.

Unfortunately for Sheinbaum, not only does her country have to contend with tariff threats but now Trump’s seeming disregard for honoring signed agreements including the U.S. -Mexico-Canada trade pact negotiated during his first term as president.