WASHINGTON — When she launched her campaign for governor of Virginia just over a year ago, Abigail Spanberger, a former Democratic congresswoman, had a fairly straightforward set of priorities: education, cost of living, the housing crisis. Since January 20, that list has been upended. “Now the issues that matter most to Virginians are, you know, whether or not they’re gonna have a job tomorrow,” Spanberger told the Globe. As President Trump and his ally Elon Musk continue their push to rapidly dismantle the federal government through deep cuts to its workforce , few states stand to be more affected than Virginia, home to over 340,000 federal workers, from the suburbs just across the Potomac River from Washington to the military communities of Hampton Roads. And no state might illustrate the potential political backlash to the Department of Government Efficiency project quicker than Virginia, which is one of two to hold its gubernatorial and legislative elections the year after a presidential election. Virginia is always closely watched as a bellwether for a newly-elected president’s political fortunes. But this year, it’s also a test of Trump and Musk’s bid to radically reshape the government. Democrats don’t think DOGE’s potentially outsized impact on Virginia will, on its own, ensure victory for them this November, but they acknowledged it has reshaped this high-profile race in short order. Spanberger said she hears about it from voters “every day, everywhere I go … literally, it is the first thing that people bring to me. “Frankly, I think it’s created a starker contrast than I ever could have anticipated, because the role of governor is … in my opinion, to stand up for, advocate for, and do right by Virginians,” she said. Republicans, already facing an uphill climb because the “off-year” races typically favor the party out of power in Washington, are poised to be caught between Trump’s base, which is enthusiastic about DOGE, and angry federal workers. The GOP front-runner, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, has attempted to balance empathy for worried workers with validating Trump and Musk’s mission, echoing outgoing Governor Glenn Youngkin. In a video posted to X on Feb. 22, Earle-Sears told impacted Virginians that she understands “what it is to not know how the next paycheck is coming” but said, “the government must be accountable to us and tell us how it is spending our hard-earned dollars.” Earle-Sears also included five links to online employment resources “so that you can get back into the workforce.” Three of those links, however, directed to pages that showed error messages as of Wednesday. Her campaign did not respond to requests for comment or an interview. Strategists from both parties said backlash to DOGE layoffs and cuts could stiffen the existing headwinds facing Republicans this year, as they try to retain the governorship and recapture control of the House of Delegates, which Democrats control by a single seat. “Virginia today is pretty much ground zero for the consequences of gutting the federal government,” said Jesse Ferguson, a longtime Democratic strategist who has worked on many Virginia campaigns. “The Republican Party should wish they were having their off-year election in any other state if they were going to make their line in the sand that they were going to gut government services.” Chris Saxman, a former Republican member of the Virginia Senate who previously advised Earle-Sears, described the centrality of the federal government as the “Achilles heel of the Virginia economy,” which he argued is too reliant on massive federal spending. “We’re going to see some significant impacts to Virginia,” Saxman said, adding Republicans will have trouble distancing themselves from the fallout. Some Republicans feel confident that voters’ broad support for reducing the size of government, even in Virginia, will ultimately help the GOP more than it hurts. “Donald Trump is delivering on his promise of effectively reducing government spending and size, while Richmond Democrats can’t take the time to even vote on a tax cut for their constituents,” said Mason Di Palma, communications director for the Republican State Leadership Committee. “Instead, they are preoccupied with futilely attacking Elon Musk while failing to deliver any real results for the people of Virginia.” It’s difficult to overstate the federal government’s impact on the Virginia economy, even far from the Beltway. The US metropolitan area with the highest share of federal workers outside of Washington is Hampton Roads, which spans the cities of Virginia Beach and Norfolk, home to several major military bases that collectively account for 83,000 active duty military personnel. Richmond, the state capital, also has a large number of federal workers. In the congressional districts spanning these regions, federal employees can account for anywhere from one in 10 to one in six of the population. These jobs support additional private sector jobs in a range of fields, adding to the potential pain of federal cuts. Virginia headed into 2025 with a healthy economy, with 3 percent unemployment. But a forecast from Old Dominion University in December said reductions in the federal workforce would likely have “significant negative consequences of employment” and suggested “there would not be a corresponding number of open private-sector positions offering similar compensation.” It’s unclear so far how many Virginia federal workers have been laid off. But the scope of the potential damage — and how personal the issue will be even to Virginians who don’t work for the government themselves — means it is not an issue Republicans can afford to ignore. Earle-Sears has the added challenge of an increasingly serious primary threat from state Delegate Dave LaRock, who is fully embracing the Trump-Musk agenda. On LaRock’s campaign website, his number one listed priority is creating a Virginia version of DOGE, which he described as “a bold initiative aimed at cutting government waste, lowering costs, and ensuring transparency in Virginia’s government.” He promised that a Virginia DOGE Task Force would “streamline agencies” and “cut billions in unnecessary spending while improving services.” A fact sheet on the proposal brands LaRock as “#DogeDave.” (A spokesperson said LaRock was not available for an interview.) Though well-liked by many GOP activists, Earle-Sears is viewed with suspicion in some pro-Trump circles after her comments following the 2022 midterm elections that Republicans needed to move on from the president to new leadership. Chris LaCivita, Trump’s 2024 campaign manager, on Feb. 19 tweeted a suggestion that Hung Cao, the defeated GOP nominee for Senate last year, could run for governor. On her active social media feeds, Earle-Sears has stuck to attacking Spanberger and Democrats on culture war issues; she has rolled out an attack line accusing them of wanting “to turn us into Maryland 2.0,” associated with higher taxes. “Don’t Maryland My Virginia,” one slogan read, a direct echo of New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte’s slogan disparaging Massachusetts during her winning campaign last year. Democrats intend to keep pressing Earle-Sears and Republicans, though the steady stream of news out of Washington about mass layoffs and programs on the chopping block ensures they won’t have to work hard to keep the issue before Virginia voters. Don Scott, the Democratic Speaker of the House of Delegates, launched a special committee to study the effects of Trump’s cuts on Virginia. He told the Globe his chamber may consider legislation to provide relief to laid-off federal workers, possibly in the form of incentives for the private sector to hire them. Constituents, Scott said, are pressing him to ask what Democrats plan to do. “At least we’re trying to respond,” he said. Spanberger, who said Youngkin and Earle-Sears’ responses to the job cuts were “outrageous,” argued the state is missing a governor who uses their bully pulpit “to speak up for Virginians and advocate for the state.” Saxman, the former Earle-Sears adviser, succinctly summarized the politics at play for Trump-backing Virginia Republicans. “When you run against the swamp,” he said, “the swamp still votes.”
CONTINUE READING
