The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day for Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning for the threat of severe storms early this week.
SETUP
An upper-level system moves into the Plains as the weekend ends, pushing an area of low pressure into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Moisture increases ahead of this system while dry air sharply filters in behind it, setting up a boundary known as a dryline between moist and dry air. Near the dryline, and further north toward the center of low pressure, winds will also increase and provide the best support for severe weather during the day on Monday. Storms that initiate ahead of the dryline on Monday will be capable of all hazards and could impact northwestern Missouri by late afternoon. In Mid-Missouri, we are more confident in severe storms arriving with the cold front on Monday night, where all hazards remain possible.
FUTURETRACK
Thunderstorms will likely develop Monday afternoon across Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and northwest Missouri and will have access to abundant shear and instability, with which all types of severe weather will be possible. Our chance for storms increases as the front moves into Mid-Missouri after midnight into early Tuesday morning. Storms along this front will still be capable of all severe hazards before exiting around sunrise. The cold front will fuel more rain on Tuesday, while the severe risk shifts south of I-44.
HAZARDS
The tornado risk will be highest during the day on Monday, and this risk drops as the evening and overnight wear on. High winds and large hail will be our primary threats, with local flash flooding also possible as storms may track over the same areas for several hours. There remains a notable risk for severe weather in Mid-Missouri, and consistency in forecasts is increasing our confidence in severe storms on Monday afternoon and overnight. Make sure you have multiple ways to stay weather aware, including the
ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App , which can provide local weather alerts for your location.
