Do the Washington Wizards have the right infrastructure in place to develop their young players?

Will the franchise continue to tank next season and during the 2026-27 season?

What are the chances of the Wizards conveying their first-round pick in 2026 to the New York Knicks?

I answer those questions and more in the newest edition of The Athletic’s Wizards mailbag.

(Editor’s note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and grammar.)

With the Wizards finally looking to the future and willing to draft high-upside players and be patient with their development, the actual development of those players is everything. What does a comprehensive player development program look like at the NBA level, and how does the Wizards’ program compare to other top player-development organizations? –@Chistina C.

I agree that developing players is critical for every organization — and especially for the Wizards, who are attempting to build through the draft and also have traded for young players such as AJ Johnson and Colby Jones.

What do young prospects AJ Johnson and Colby Jones bring to the Washington Wizards?

Player development must also include mid-career and older players. The best veteran players refine and add to their games throughout their careers. It would be to the Wizards’ advantage if their organization develops a reputation as one in which every player, not just the youngsters, gets better.

Often, fans and journalists think of “player development” solely as improving specific skills such as 3-point shooting, dribbling dexterity and mastering offensive and defensive schemes. But skill growth is only one part of it, albeit a big part. A comprehensive program also includes nutrition, strength work, injury prevention, developing off-court habits and, more than ever before, a focus on mental health.

General manager Will Dawkins, coach Brian Keefe, assistant coach David Vanterpool, senior advisor Troy Weaver and Monumental Basketball president Michael Winger spent formative parts of their careers with the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have one of the league’s best player-development programs.

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden came out of the Thunder system, but I would argue that those generational players are such outliers in terms of pure talent that they were nurtured more than “developed.” I think the Thunder’s best player-development success stories are those of Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Jalen Williams — guys who have far outperformed their draft positions.

So, yes, I think the Wizards have people in key positions who have extensive experience with one of the league’s best development systems as well as supplementary experience with other organizations. Another assistant coach, Adam Caporn, has a fascinating resume that includes seven seasons as the head coach of Basketball Australia’s Centre of Excellence and work with Australia’s national and Under-16 team.

Keep in mind, though, that player development is not solely the domain of a coaching staff and a front office. So many people play a part.

David Aldridge and I recently did a deep dive into the player-development system that Dawkins has installed with the Wizards. It’s arguably more detailed than the Thunder’s, and it also involves extreme levels of communication and cooperation between all the staff members within the team’s basketball operations department. Team officials, with input from the players, identify areas of focus on and off the court that are tracked, often using specific metrics. Meetings take place throughout the season — shorter conversations every 10 games and more detailed conversations every 25 games — to monitor how the plan is going, add more accountability and make any necessary adjustments.

As for ownership’s commitment to player development, I think it’s fair to say that the team is spending a lot of money these days, with added investments in its front office, an expansion of its basketball operations workforce and even its summer-league practice area in Las Vegas.

The Wizards’ current in-season practice facility is functional but nothing more, and it’s behind the curve league-wide. I’ll be fascinated to see where the team acquires land to build a new facility and how nice it will be. That said, a practice facility doesn’t need to be beautiful for its team to properly develop players.

I agree 100 percent that NBA executives would love it if the Wizards energized their fan base. The District-Maryland-Virginia market is a large, wealthy market — not as large as New York, Los Angeles or Chicago but on par with, or larger than, anywhere else in the U.S. and Canada. And the DMV loves basketball. I’ve said it a million times: The Wizards franchise sits atop an untapped powder keg of pent-up basketball interest.

So, yes, it would benefit the entire league if the Wizards become nationally relevant again.

But the NBA Draft Lottery is not rigged.

I think the Wizards like both players a lot, but I believe the Wizards’ choice would be Harper. As The Athletic’s NBA Draft analyst, Sam Vecenie, has written, “Outside of Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper, there are precious few prospects in this class without significant questions right now.”

It’s too early to say for sure how Washington would draft if it’s lucky enough to win the second pick, though. There’s a lot of time until the draft — most notably, medical testing and team officials’ meetings with draft prospects.

The Wizards would love nothing more than to see their top draft pick this June turn into a bona fide superstar. But even the most talented players tend not to transform their teams in their rookie seasons. Victor Wembanyama was the best pre-draft prospect of his generation, but even his San Antonio Spurs posted only a 22-60 record last season.

To recap the Wizards’ obligation to the New York Knicks: Washington would convey that 2026 first-round pick only if it falls outside the top eight. Given how the lottery works, teams that finish in the bottom four of the NBA standings cannot wind up with anything worse than a top-eight pick. Even the team with the fifth-worst record has a 99.4 percent chance of receiving a top-eight pick.

Long story short: I see almost no chance of the Wizards finishing outside the bottom five of the 2025-26 standings. In addition, given how talented that 2026 draft is projected to be, with AJ Dybantsa the likely headliner, I suspect Washington will be right in the mix again for the best possible odds of picking first, second, third or fourth. (Remember, the teams with the three worst records have equal odds of winning any of the top-four picks.)

Would the Wiz come out of the full-tank mode if they have a nice roster of good, young players who project to be plus starters in the NBA? Or are they going to stay in Tank Land until they get a “generational” or MVP-level talent to build around? One could happen in two or three years. The other might be five years or longer. I think it’s interesting that for all OKC’s home-grown talent and picks, the Thunder got their MVP candidate on the trade market. –@M J.

Tanking cannot go on forever.

But, as I said earlier, I expect the team to remain bottomed-out (or very close to bottomed-out) throughout the 2025-26 season. The 2026 draft is too good.

But there’s a significant likelihood that the Wizards will exit the 2025 and 2026 drafts without a future perennial All-Star. That’s just how the lottery works; the lottery reform measures that went into effect in 2019 are not Washington’s friend right now.

The biggest danger the franchise faces is to accumulate a bunch of young players who are merely good but are not good enough to truly drive winning.

What was a team that hoarded a bunch of good young players without ever drafting a true star? That would be the Orlando Magic from 2012-13 through 2016-17. In those years, under that front office, the Magic either drafted or traded for Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vučević, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton; those players were fine players, but none of them — even all of them together — were good enough to elevate the franchise. The Magic also made a crippling error during the 2016 draft when, facing pressure to turn a corner, they selected Domantas Sabonis 11th and then traded Sabonis’ draft rights, Oladipo and Ersan Ilyasova to the Thunder for Serge Ibaka.

So how will the Wizards approach the 2026-27 season if they aren’t lucky in the 2025 and 2026 lotteries and/or don’t draft a cornerstone-level player?

I don’t think the Wizards’ front office has an answer to that question right now.

In that scenario, something that would have to be considered is how far along current youngsters Carrington, Coulibaly, George, Sarr and Vukcevic are in mid-2026. Maybe one or two or three of them will exceed expectations. Maybe none of them will even meet expectations. It’s too early to know for certain how they’ll pan out.

Another franchise that could hold some clues about the Wizards’ future is the Houston Rockets. From 2020-21 through 2022-23, the Rockets posted consecutive records of 17-55, 20-62 and 22-60 and drafted Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore and acquired the draft rights to their best young player, Alperen Şengün.

Are any of Houston’s youngsters true stars? Perhaps not, though Şengün just made his first All-Star team.

Still, Houston improved last season to 41-41 thanks to the hiring of coach Ime Udoka, the maturation of the young players and — crucially — adding veterans Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Jeff Green. The Rockets remain on the rise now; they entered Tuesday with a 37-24 record.

Given the Wiz owe a protected lottery pick through next year before it converts to a couple of seconds, I think it is safe to assume the Wiz will be prioritizing keeping the pick and adding another top-level prospect to the roster. Has the team given you any indication of their plans for what’s next after stockpiling the young talent? How do they go from prioritizing adding and developing young talent to being competitive and making a playoff push? –@Jason S.

Yes, I have received an indication on how the front office intends to turn a corner.

Eventually, the team will look to add experienced players who not only are trusted locker room voices but who can still play at a high level. See Houston’s additions of VanVleet and Brooks as a quintessential example.

Washington added a pair of highly respected vets at this year’s trade deadline who can still play, Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart, and I think they’re helping the youngsters on and off the court. But keep in mind that the Wizards made those deals primarily for the draft capital, and it’s certainly possible the Wizards will attempt to trade Middleton and Smart after this season or before the 2026 trade deadline.

But at least some of the young players Washington has added, and are yet to add, will need to develop. In Houston, for instance, the additions of VanVleet and Brooks wouldn’t have had an effect if the Rockets didn’t have a promising core already on hand.