The PGA Tour heads to Arizona for the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. The weeklong party in the desert attracts the largest crowds in the world for a golf event. Plus, golf fans and revelers won’t have to put up with a Super Bowl being in town this year.
Who will have more fun this week, those in Scottsdale at the WM Phoenix Open or those in New Orleans for Super Bowl 59?
The WM Phoenix Open is cracking down on alcohol consumption and intoxication after being criticized for less-than-ideal fan behavior. Putting through dents made by beer bottles on the 16th green should be saved for “Happy Gilmore 2.”
The WM Phoenix Open is nestled between two PGA Tour signature events while trying to attract the best field it can. With so many PGA Tour professionals calling the Phoenix and Scottsdale areas home, you can see why they have a nice built-in field.
The world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, who happens to be a two-time champion here, is in the field this week and is the heavy betting favorite to win and make it three titles in the desert. Joining him are fellow two-time WM Phoenix Open champion Hideki Matsuyama, along with Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im and Sam Burns.
This week’s model will concentrate on strokes gained from tee to green, on approach from 250-plus yards and on short Par 4s, as well as proximity to the fairway on drives and lag putting. This week’s greens will look like football fields compared to the ones the players saw at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week.
Golfers will need to control the speed of their putts to avoid putting three times. The rough has grown to 3.5 inches, so just missing the fairway may be a little more penal than usual, especially with water on some key holes. Big misses off the tee and water balls on birdie holes are the real threats here.
Scottie Scheffler (+275) returned to action this week by gaining almost 6.0 strokes on approach at Pebble Beach and over 3.0 combined on the weekend. His swing and health looked great, even with some hiccups around the green. If you’re more interested in betting on the Super Bowl this week, parlaying a Scheffler win with a Super Bowl prop bet could be a good way to extract value from this number. For instance, I could take Scheffler with a Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown.
Sam Burns (+2500) is struggling with his irons and approach shots. He has lost more than 1.5 strokes on approach in the four tournaments he has played since losing over 6.0 at the Presidents Cup. He has gained over a stroke in each of his last five tries at TPC Scottsdale and has improved his finishing position each of the previous two years. I like this number because it shows how weak the field is outside of Scheffler.
Maverick McNealy (+5000) gained over 5.3 strokes combined off the tee and on approach at Pebble Beach but surprisingly lost most of them on the greens. He finished T6 here, gaining strokes in every category, and is a putting bounceback away from contending for a win.
Rasmus Højgaard (+5000) has not played in the WM Phoenix Open before but has done well in my model and in the overall course-adjusted fit over his last 36 rounds. He has gained strokes on approach in 17 straight measured events and over 8.0 strokes combined on approach in his last two tournaments.
Gary Woodland (+10000) is among my long shots again this week at another venue where he has won. He gained over 3.0 strokes combined off the tee and on approach at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after gaining almost 6.0 strokes combined in the same statistical categories at the Sony Open.
Jake Knapp (+15000) is a resident of Scottsdale, and his game is starting to turn around. Like most young PGA Tour players, he has struggled with consistency, but he can pay off for you when you get him on an upswing. He finished T28 here last year and gained over 1.5 strokes on approach at Pebble Beach last week. It was the first time he gained that many strokes on approach since May 2024 at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Scottie Scheffler ($12,000) is this week’s highest-priced player, and for good reason. Although he will take up a large portion of my budget, I’ll build most of my teams around him.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200) has struggled off the tee in his last two outings and has been struggling to hit fairways lately, which doesn’t bode well for him at one of his favorite golf courses. I’m not fading him completely, but I will be under his ownership percentage by a few points.
Sam Burns ($10,000) See above.
Rasmus Højgaard ($9,200) See above.
Byeong Hun An ($9,100) has never missed a cut here and relishes desert golf. I thought he would do well to start the year after winning the Korea Championship in October, but he has struggled with his irons and his approach shots. He has lost over 5.6 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments.
Maverick McNealy ($8,800) See above.
Nick Taylor ($8,400) won in a playoff here last year and has gained over 13.3 strokes on approach combined over his first three golf tournaments of 2025.
Luke Clanton ($8,300) is driving the ball really well and finally improved his approach play, gaining over 1.9 strokes on approach. He is priced right around major championship winners who are struggling. He shouldn’t be ignored.
Billy Horschel ($7,600) gained over 4.3 strokes on approach last week at Pebble Beach and hasn’t missed a cut here since 2014. He loves the crowds and has two top-nine finishes here.
Sam Stevens ($7,600) followed up his second-place showing at the Farmers Insurance Open with a T17 at Pebble Beach, where he gained over 4.3 strokes combined off the tee and on approach. He is in good form and had a T28 here last year, which proves he can deal with the crowds.
Andrew Novak ($7,500) followed up his third-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open with a T13 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He shows up well in my model and finished T8 here last year.
Lucas Glover ($7,400) came out against AimPoint putting this week, and I’m glad someone on the PGA Tour did. He also had some great quotes about Rory McIlroy and how great it is to see someone get better with hard work. Glover finished T3 at Pebble Beach by gaining over 5.0 strokes on approach and staying hot with the putter. He’s been mediocre here, making 12 out of 15 cuts but never finishing higher than T20. I made a mistake not playing him last week and won’t make it again this week, but I’m not going overboard on ownership percentage.
Charley Hoffman ($7,200) has been on a heater from tee to green. He has gained over 16 strokes combined from tee to green over his last three tournaments. He finished second place in a playoff here last year and has only missed the cut once since 2014. His putter is ice cold, but he’s hitting well and only needs to improve slightly to have value at this price.
Gary Woodland ($7,100) See above.
Bud Cauley ($6,900) had gained over 15 strokes combined from tee to green over his last three tournaments before withdrawing ahead of The American Express. He has made the cut here six out of seven tries with three top-26 finishes. He has gained over 9.0 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments here. Anyone who has read my column for a while knows I’m a Bud Cauley fan, so there’s no doubt I’m playing him this week, even if he should probably be a little cheaper.
Ryan Fox ($6,900) finished T41 here last year and has been playing well on the DP World Tour with a top-10 at the Dubai Desert Classic and a T27 at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. He gained over 7.5 strokes on approach combined in those two tournaments.
Jake Knapp ($6,800) See above.
Lanto Griffin ($6,500) gained over 4.5 strokes combined off the tee and on approach at the Farmers Insurance Open and looks to be in decent form as he makes his way back to the PGA Tour.
Patrick Cantlay did not help my teams last week, but it could have been worse. I thought about Sahith Theegala because he has two top-fives here, but his recent form has been a little too erratic to trust him this week. I’m not taking Scottie Scheffler in a non-signature or major event. I’m between Andrew Novak and Nick Taylor, though maybe I’ll take a risk with Luke Clanton. Check with me in the comments or on Twitter for my final decision.
CONTINUE READING
Who will have more fun this week, those in Scottsdale at the WM Phoenix Open or those in New Orleans for Super Bowl 59?
The WM Phoenix Open is cracking down on alcohol consumption and intoxication after being criticized for less-than-ideal fan behavior. Putting through dents made by beer bottles on the 16th green should be saved for “Happy Gilmore 2.”
The WM Phoenix Open is nestled between two PGA Tour signature events while trying to attract the best field it can. With so many PGA Tour professionals calling the Phoenix and Scottsdale areas home, you can see why they have a nice built-in field.
The world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, who happens to be a two-time champion here, is in the field this week and is the heavy betting favorite to win and make it three titles in the desert. Joining him are fellow two-time WM Phoenix Open champion Hideki Matsuyama, along with Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im and Sam Burns.
This week’s model will concentrate on strokes gained from tee to green, on approach from 250-plus yards and on short Par 4s, as well as proximity to the fairway on drives and lag putting. This week’s greens will look like football fields compared to the ones the players saw at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week.
Golfers will need to control the speed of their putts to avoid putting three times. The rough has grown to 3.5 inches, so just missing the fairway may be a little more penal than usual, especially with water on some key holes. Big misses off the tee and water balls on birdie holes are the real threats here.
2025 WM Phoenix Open odds
Course information
Betting slip
Scottie Scheffler (+275) returned to action this week by gaining almost 6.0 strokes on approach at Pebble Beach and over 3.0 combined on the weekend. His swing and health looked great, even with some hiccups around the green. If you’re more interested in betting on the Super Bowl this week, parlaying a Scheffler win with a Super Bowl prop bet could be a good way to extract value from this number. For instance, I could take Scheffler with a Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown.
Sam Burns (+2500) is struggling with his irons and approach shots. He has lost more than 1.5 strokes on approach in the four tournaments he has played since losing over 6.0 at the Presidents Cup. He has gained over a stroke in each of his last five tries at TPC Scottsdale and has improved his finishing position each of the previous two years. I like this number because it shows how weak the field is outside of Scheffler.
Maverick McNealy (+5000) gained over 5.3 strokes combined off the tee and on approach at Pebble Beach but surprisingly lost most of them on the greens. He finished T6 here, gaining strokes in every category, and is a putting bounceback away from contending for a win.
Rasmus Højgaard (+5000) has not played in the WM Phoenix Open before but has done well in my model and in the overall course-adjusted fit over his last 36 rounds. He has gained strokes on approach in 17 straight measured events and over 8.0 strokes combined on approach in his last two tournaments.
Longshots
Gary Woodland (+10000) is among my long shots again this week at another venue where he has won. He gained over 3.0 strokes combined off the tee and on approach at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after gaining almost 6.0 strokes combined in the same statistical categories at the Sony Open.
Jake Knapp (+15000) is a resident of Scottsdale, and his game is starting to turn around. Like most young PGA Tour players, he has struggled with consistency, but he can pay off for you when you get him on an upswing. He finished T28 here last year and gained over 1.5 strokes on approach at Pebble Beach last week. It was the first time he gained that many strokes on approach since May 2024 at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
DFS plays
Scottie Scheffler ($12,000) is this week’s highest-priced player, and for good reason. Although he will take up a large portion of my budget, I’ll build most of my teams around him.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200) has struggled off the tee in his last two outings and has been struggling to hit fairways lately, which doesn’t bode well for him at one of his favorite golf courses. I’m not fading him completely, but I will be under his ownership percentage by a few points.
Sam Burns ($10,000) See above.
Rasmus Højgaard ($9,200) See above.
Byeong Hun An ($9,100) has never missed a cut here and relishes desert golf. I thought he would do well to start the year after winning the Korea Championship in October, but he has struggled with his irons and his approach shots. He has lost over 5.6 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments.
Maverick McNealy ($8,800) See above.
Nick Taylor ($8,400) won in a playoff here last year and has gained over 13.3 strokes on approach combined over his first three golf tournaments of 2025.
Luke Clanton ($8,300) is driving the ball really well and finally improved his approach play, gaining over 1.9 strokes on approach. He is priced right around major championship winners who are struggling. He shouldn’t be ignored.
Billy Horschel ($7,600) gained over 4.3 strokes on approach last week at Pebble Beach and hasn’t missed a cut here since 2014. He loves the crowds and has two top-nine finishes here.
Sam Stevens ($7,600) followed up his second-place showing at the Farmers Insurance Open with a T17 at Pebble Beach, where he gained over 4.3 strokes combined off the tee and on approach. He is in good form and had a T28 here last year, which proves he can deal with the crowds.
Andrew Novak ($7,500) followed up his third-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open with a T13 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He shows up well in my model and finished T8 here last year.
Lucas Glover ($7,400) came out against AimPoint putting this week, and I’m glad someone on the PGA Tour did. He also had some great quotes about Rory McIlroy and how great it is to see someone get better with hard work. Glover finished T3 at Pebble Beach by gaining over 5.0 strokes on approach and staying hot with the putter. He’s been mediocre here, making 12 out of 15 cuts but never finishing higher than T20. I made a mistake not playing him last week and won’t make it again this week, but I’m not going overboard on ownership percentage.
Charley Hoffman ($7,200) has been on a heater from tee to green. He has gained over 16 strokes combined from tee to green over his last three tournaments. He finished second place in a playoff here last year and has only missed the cut once since 2014. His putter is ice cold, but he’s hitting well and only needs to improve slightly to have value at this price.
Gary Woodland ($7,100) See above.
Bud Cauley ($6,900) had gained over 15 strokes combined from tee to green over his last three tournaments before withdrawing ahead of The American Express. He has made the cut here six out of seven tries with three top-26 finishes. He has gained over 9.0 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments here. Anyone who has read my column for a while knows I’m a Bud Cauley fan, so there’s no doubt I’m playing him this week, even if he should probably be a little cheaper.
Ryan Fox ($6,900) finished T41 here last year and has been playing well on the DP World Tour with a top-10 at the Dubai Desert Classic and a T27 at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. He gained over 7.5 strokes on approach combined in those two tournaments.
Jake Knapp ($6,800) See above.
Lanto Griffin ($6,500) gained over 4.5 strokes combined off the tee and on approach at the Farmers Insurance Open and looks to be in decent form as he makes his way back to the PGA Tour.
One and Done
Patrick Cantlay did not help my teams last week, but it could have been worse. I thought about Sahith Theegala because he has two top-fives here, but his recent form has been a little too erratic to trust him this week. I’m not taking Scottie Scheffler in a non-signature or major event. I’m between Andrew Novak and Nick Taylor, though maybe I’ll take a risk with Luke Clanton. Check with me in the comments or on Twitter for my final decision.
