Aaron Judge faces a favorable matchup against a Kansas City southpaw tonight, and we expect the reigning home run champ to go deep in the Bronx.

It may be getaway day in some cities, but much of baseball is playing this evening, meaning there are plenty of MLB player props and home run picks to ponder.

Headlined by New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, here are my MLB picks for Wednesday, April 16.

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HR picks for April 16

Lazy analysis here would say, “ Aaron Judge has not hit a home run in 10 games. He is due!” If anything, that stretch should discourage this bet.

The more concerning part of Judge’s dry spell occurred through the first three games when he went 2-of-11 at the plate. Since then, Judge has been making plenty of contact, going 11-for-23.

At some point, Judge making contact will lead to Judge hitting a home run. That much is known about the New York Yankees right fielder.

Expecting that to be tonight is based on the delight of facing Kansas City Royals lefty Kris Bubic. Four of Judge’s six home runs have come against left-handers despite facing them in only 22 of his 77 (28.6%) plate appearances and 18 of his 63 (also 28.6%) at-bats. That same distinct preference shows up in Judge’s batting average, hitting .444 against lefties and .356 against righties.

The MVP frontrunner is making contact these days, and tonight he should make some against a southpaw.

The face of the Seattle Mariners ’ franchise has found his power stroke of late, hitting three home runs in his last four games. Fun fact about those three home runs: They all came off right-handers.

In fact, four of Cal Raleigh ’s five home runs this year have come against righties despite taking only 62.5% of his at-bats against them. Last year, 21 of Raleigh’s 34 homers (61.8%) came against RHP.

You know what’s coming next. Indeed, Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Martinez is a right-hander, and he has given up three home runs in as many starts this season.

As the Mariners’ catcher, Raleigh should play the entire game tonight, assuring him of at least four plate appearances. Considering his swing of late, that should be enough to send a pitch over the fence.

For someone with only three home runs this season through 15 games and 47 at-bats, you may have expected this payout to be a bit higher. But realize, three home runs in 15 games — that mere fact on its own — would argue for a +400 price. So already, this is a value.

There is logic to seeing this as further value.

While only two of Mike Yastrzemski ’s three home runs have come against right-handers this year, compared to 80.9% of his at-bats, all 18 of his home runs in 2024 were against right-handed pitching..

This year’s sample size hides just how much the San Francisco Giant s' right fielder prefers RHP. Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola is well aware of that preference, and he should worry about it, given that he has coughed up four home runs in three starts this season.

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