ZiPS has at least one answer for us. The ZiPS player projection model was created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs and has been one of the top baseball projection systems over the years. In this article, we’ll take a look at the projections for the Rays and see what the system has in store for them in 2025.

Rays ZiPS: Position Players

After fielding a top-five offense in 2023, the Rays took a huge step back in 2024, finishing second to last in run production at 3.73 runs per game. A couple of external improvements were made, but most of the improvement will have to come internally if Tampa is to get back to an offensive level that competes with the rest of a fierce division.

Rays ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Pitching has been the bread and butter of the Rays for years; they have ranked among the top 10 in MLB in team ERA every season since 2017. That shouldn’t be any different here in 2025. The only question is just how high the pitching staff can soar if health actually works out in their favor this year.

Rays ZiPS: Final Thoughts

Even the best teams take a step back every once in a while, which is just what happened to the Rays in 2024. Then again, when you have more than one injured starting pitcher and an offense that bottoms out, it’s hard not to end up with a disappointing season. It’s honestly impressive they didn’t finish worse than they did.

But the Rays are a quality organization with exceptional internal development, so it’s no surprise that they have plenty of players projected for good seasons. That may only have FanGraphs predicting an 82-80 season for them, but even in a loaded division, that would have them within five games of the top spot.

Tampa Bay has made it a habit of outperforming the projections in the past and will look to do the same in 2025. Based on this team’s history, who are we (or ZiPS) to doubt the Rays?