President Donald Trump and his policies will take center stage in
this year’s elections for governor and all 100 seats in the House of Delegates , as a series of speeches during the General Assembly's veto session made clear. Democrats knew their narrow majorities - 51-49 in the House and 21-19 in the Senate - would not be enough to reach the two-thirds vote needed to overturn any of 157 vetoes by Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican allied closely with Trump. So they only spoke up on 13 in the House. And in those, Democrats echoed the same line, asserting that Republicans were not joining in opposition because they "are too terrified" to cross Trump.
President Donald Trump departs after signing an executive order to announce new tariffs Wednesday in the Rose Garden of the White House. Facing a certain failure to overturn Youngkin's veto of an increase in the minimum wage to $15 per hour by January 2027, Del. Jeion Ward, D-Hampton, said: "It looks like we can't move much further than we are at $12.41 because it appears that Republicans are just too terrified of Trump to give Virginians a raise."
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Del. Jeion Ward, D-Hampton, seen in a 2020 photo, sponsored legislation Gov. Glenn Youngkin vetoed that would have increased the minimum wage to $15 per hour by Jan. 1, 2027. Democrats made the same point on several Youngkin vetoes of bills calling for tighter controls over guns - including measures to bar sales of assault-style weapons.
Del. Dan Helmer, D-Fairfax, seen in 2023, sponsored legislation Gov. Glenn Youngkin vetoed that would have barred sales of assault-style weapons. "I carried weapons similar to these assault weapons we would ban (when serving) in Iraq and Afghanistan ... these firearms were designed for the battlefield, not for our streets," said Del. Dan Helmer, D-Fairfax. "What have we seen from Virginia Republicans? ... They are too terrified of Donald Trump to act, too terrified of Trump to remove weapons of war from our communities."
Del. Nick Freitas, R-Culpeper, seen in April 2024, said Democrats touting gun control bills are terrified of law-abiding Virginians. Del. Nick Freitas, R-Culpeper, retorted that "the only people in this room terrified of something are apparently our Democrat colleagues - of our own law-abiding citizens." Democratic House members also linked Trump to their inability to win GOP support for bills Youngkin vetoed on paid family leave and public sector collective bargaining and measures to prevent the state from dropping people from voting rolls close to election - as Virginia did ahead of the presidential election. Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington, said that in the campaigns to come "Democrats will make Trump the first name of every Republican who's on the ballot." Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, predicted, "The backlash against Trump, especially in Northern Virginia, will be intensified this year." On top of that, Rozell added, "The Virginia elections will be in the national spotlight, perhaps more than ever before, as a bellwether of the national political mood." Democrats certified Thursday that former Rep. Abigail Spanberger will be the party's nominee for governor. The state GOP has not yet announced whether former state Sen. Amanda Chase amassed enough verified signatures to challenge Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears for the Republican nomination in a June 17 primary.
Trump's cuts and tariffs
Meantime, the president's policies already are producing layoffs in the federal workforce and deep cuts in government spending that helps drive Virginia's economy, especially in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. His announcement of sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners is threatening steep taxes on goods that flow through the Port of Virginia, another major generator of state jobs and investment.
The CMA CGM Marco Polo, the largest container ship to ever come to the East Coast, is seen arriving at the Port of Virginia in 2021. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners threaten steep taxes on goods that flow through the port. Actions by Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress might bring the Democratic-controlled assembly back to Richmond as Election Day draws closer to rewrite the state budget. Lawmakers just revised the two-year budget for July 1, 2024, through June 30, 2026, after dismissing 172 amendments that Youngkin had proposed. "Folks, there's a storm coming," Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax, warned fellow senators Wednesday at the veto session. Surovell reinforced his message on social media the next day with the announcement that Mitre Corp., a major federal contractor based in Fairfax, would lay off 442 employees. On the other side, Republicans are likely argue that a Democratic trifecta - electing a Democratic governor and returning a Democratic majority to the House to bolster the Democratic majority in the state Senate - would mean legislation on guns, abortion and taxes that their base voters won't like, Farnsworth said. Republicans also will rally their voter base against Democratic efforts to pass proposed state constitutional amendments to guarantee abortion rights, same-sex marriage and automatic restoration of voting rights to felons who have done their time. The legislature backed all three proposed amendments in this year's session. To be enacted, each amendment would have to clear the assembly again next year - after this fall's election for the House of Delegates - and then win voters' approval in a statewide referendum. "The legislative session always sets a template for what both parties will campaign on," Farnsworth said. "Democrats can point to things they wanted to do and couldn't because of the vetoes and Republicans to things the Democrats wanted that were vetoed."
Youngkin's record
Matthew Moran, senior political adviser to Youngkin, said Republicans will stand behind what he called the governor's track record on lowering taxes, expanding jobs and investment, and cutting government regulations.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin is seen on March 23. A political adviser said Republicans will run on Youngkin's track record on lowering taxes, expanding jobs and investment and cutting government regulations. "At the end of the day, everybody knows this is going to be a pocketbook election," Moran said Friday. The revised budget includes a $1 billion tax rebate due in October, as well as a two-year extension of higher standard deductions and refundable earned income tax credits. The governor has not reacted to the assembly's dismissal of 84% of his proposed amendments, including two to make the higher tax deductions and credits permanent, but he signaled on Friday that he will not veto the final budget. In announcing that the Trump administration had approved a disaster declaration in Southwest Virginia after heavy flooding from fall and winter storms, the governor noted that the assembly had approved his proposed budget amendment for an additional $50 million in state aid. "I'd like to thank the General Assembly, in particular the Southwest delegation, for their support here," Youngkin said.
Pocketbook issues
Pocketbook issues worked for Trump nationally in the presidential election, but now Democrats are pointing to his policies' effect on the stock market, export relationships with foreign trading partners, federal cuts damaging Virginia's economy, and rising consumer fears about inflation and a potential recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted an additional 2,200 points on Friday after falling nearly 1,700 points on Thursday.
Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax, seen in January 2023, said a key message from the 2024 election is that "affordability issues" are on voters' minds. "If there's anything we learned from the last election, it's that the everyday, quality of life, affordability issues are what's most on people's minds," Surovell said Friday. But he said Youngkin and Virginia Republicans are focusing instead on cultural war issues, such as diversity initiatives at Virginia Military Institute and the University of Virginia. "Republicans are going to try to do anything they can to not talk about what Trump and Elon Musk are doing to the Virginia economy and our workers," Surovell said.
'Wait and see'
Senate Republicans dismissed Democratic warnings as "doom and gloom," noting that inflation has not risen much and that job growth remains steady, with relatively few federal layoffs showing up as unemployment claims. Trump touted Friday's jobs report that said U.S. employers added 228,000 jobs in March - more than analysts expected - before he announced the tariffs. "I hope and I believe that the 'doom and gloom' predictions are not going to come true," Senate Republican Caucus Chairman Mark Obenshain, R-Rockingham, told senators during the veto session. Virginia Secretary of Labor Bryan Slater said Friday that 860 federal employees and 465 private federal contractors had filed unemployment claims in Virginia through March 29. Laid-off workers file claims where they work; he said 560 Virginians had filed for benefits in Washington, D.C., and 340 in Maryland earlier in March. "We're very much in a wait-and-see attitude," Slater said. "It's really the distinction between what people say are saying is going to happen and what has happened."
Energy, public safety
Coming out of veto session, Senate Minority Leader Ryan McDougle, R-Hanover, said he also expects to see a focus on the cost of living – taxes and the cost of energy – as well as public safety.
Senate Minority Leader Ryan McDougle, R-Hanover, speaks on the Senate floor Wednesday during the veto session at the state Capitol. In the upcoming elections McDougle says he expects Republican candidates to emphasize taxes, energy costs and public safety. McDougle said Republicans will argue against three Democratic priorities that Youngkin vetoed. They will assert that collective bargaining for government workers would boost the cost of government and force taxes up, while increases in the minimum wage would be a cost passed on to Virginians in the form of higher taxes, as would a Democratic bill for paid family leave. A key message for Republicans will be, “If all three - the governor, the House and the Senate - are all Democratic, then higher taxes, higher energy costs, 'right to work,' will all be coming," he said referring to potential repeal of Virginia's right-to-work law. It prevents compulsory union membership for employees in businesses operating with collective bargaining agreements. House Speaker Don Scott, D-Portsmouth, is heartened by recent election results, including Democratic wins in a heavily Republican congressional district in Pennsylvania and a 10-point victory in a Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. Republicans won two special elections for congressional seats in Florida, but by lower margins than in November. "These swings are indicative of communities that are hurting," said Scott, who noted that House Democrats in Virginia are targeting 13 Republican-held seats, with nine challengers set and primaries in June for four seats. Del. Mark Earley, R-Chesterfield, son of a former Republican attorney general who was the party's 2001 nominee for governor, holds one of those targeted seats. Earley represents a district in the western part of the county, including parts of Midlothian, which normally votes for Republicans, but gave Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris a slight, 0.6-percentage-point edge last year. During the veto session, he said, “the Democratic majority continued to prioritize hyper-wokeness and an obsession with national politics." In contract, Earley said he expects Republican campaigns, including his, to stress tax cuts, efforts to rein in rising electricity bills, public safety and parents’ authority. “The voters will have to decide which vision they prefer," he said.
The Trump card
But the biggest issue remains Trump. "The most important takeaway is how the shadow of Donald Trump loomed so large over the deliberations that it was impossible to ignore," said Olusoji Akomolafe, chair of the political science department at Norfolk State University. "It provides a sneak peek into what we can expect during the campaigns, especially after the June primaries," he said. Bob Holsworth, a veteran political analyst in Richmond, said Virginia Republicans "are facing an uphill climb." Trump has lost three presidential elections in Virginia, including a 5-percentage-point defeat in November, and has roused public anger by purging the federal workforce and spending on which the state economy depends, Holsworth said. But Holsworth said Youngkin and Earle-Sears, the Republican front-runner for governor, have not put any political distance between themselves and the president's actions. "How do they get out of the vise that they've put themselves in?" he asked. On the other hand, Holsworth said, Virginia Democrats, including Spanberger, haven't done enough to channel public anger about the Trump presidency. "The question for Democrats is, are they capable of capitalizing on the opportunity they now have in Virginia?" Email notifications are only sent once a day, and only if there are new matching items.
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