Who’s your
Kentucky Derby horse? Whether you like the
favorite Journalism or a long shot such as
Flying Mohawk or
Render Judgment , everyone has an opinion on the Run for the Roses set for May 3 at
Churchill Downs . With that in mind,
The Courier Journal offers its annual breakdown of why each horse can and can’t win the Kentucky Derby — many serious, a few tongue in cheek, one destined to be right.
Why he can win: Throw out his Santa Anita Derby —
trainer Bob Baffert said the horse wasn’t in the best shape — and
Citizen Bull would be among the favorites. He’ll be forced to try for the lead early, which may be his best chance.
Why he can’t win: He’s in the dreaded No. 1 post, which hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986. The last 2-year-old champ to win the Derby was Nyquist (2016).
Why he can win: Never worse than third in his last six starts, this horse always is in the mix and figures to be near the lead early.
Why he can’t win: Every horse in the field has to answer the mile-and-a-quarter question, but this one seems the least likely to want to go this far.
Why he can win: Took a big step forward in winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks at 15-1 odds. Seems to be this year’s “wise-guy” horse.
Why he can’t win: The “wise-guy” horse never wins.
Why he can win: Improving colt dominated the Virginia Derby, winning by 7 ¾ lengths. At age 89, trainer D. Wayne Lukas showed he still can win on the Triple Crown trail after Seize The Grey took last year’s Preakness.
Why he can’t win: The seven-week layoff between the Virginia Derby and the Kentucky Derby is concerning, as is the horse’s 0-1-0 record in three starts at Churchill Downs.
Why he can win: Showed some toughness in holding off Heart of Honor to win the UAE Derby and did so at a distance (1 3/16 miles) many of his foes haven’t yet tried.
Why he can’t win: Seems the lesser of the two choices coming from Japan, as he’s lost twice to Luxor Cafe.
Why he can win: He’s won four straight races and has a Triple Crown winner —
sire American Pharoah — in his blood. He’s a Kentucky-bred but belongs to Japan, which seems destined to win this race sooner than later.
Why he can’t win: Forever Young was perhaps the best horse ever from Japan to compete in the Kentucky Derby and finished third last year. Luxor Cafe doesn’t appear to be on his level.
Why he can win: Because he’s the best horse in the field with not just the fastest Beyer Speed Figure (108) but also the second fastest (102). Showed toughness by overcoming some trouble to win the Santa Anita Derby.
Why he can’t win: As anyone in the newspaper business will tell you, “Journalism wins!” feels like the unlikeliest of headlines.
Why he can win: His Beyer Speed Figures have improved with every race of his career. If that trend continues, watch out! Closer should get the early pace he needs.
Why he can’t win: Of the last 71 geldings to run in the Derby, only two have won — Funny Cide (2003) and Mine That Bird (2009). The “unkindest cut of all” has consequences, folks.
Why he can win: Because you believe in miracles?
Why he can’t win: His lifetime best Beyer Speed Figure (84) is the slowest in the field, and
he’s never raced on dirt . Should be the longest shot in the field.
Why he can win: Maybe his
runner-up finish in the Blue Grass Stakes was a return to the form that made him one of the nation’s top 2-year-olds last year. If he takes another step forward, could steal it on the lead.
Why he can’t win: Had every chance to win the Blue Grass and couldn’t hold off Burnham Square. Won’t get an easy lead in the Derby.
Why he can win: Seems to be training well over the Churchill Downs surface and adds one of the world’s top jockeys in Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer Steve Asmussen says the laid-back Publisher will be “the easiest horse we’ve ever saddled in the Derby.”
Why he can’t win: Well, he’s 0 for 7 lifetime. Only three maidens have won the Kentucky Derby, the last coming in 1933 (Brokers Tip).
Why he can win: Seems to be improving after running the best race of his career to win the Louisiana Derby by 2 ¼ lengths over Chunk of Gold. Among the closers in the field, could he get first run at the front-runners?
Why he can’t win: No trainer has entered more horses without winning the Kentucky Derby than Asmussen (0 for 26). Perhaps this one’s just not meant to be for the Hall of Famer.
Why he can win: The only victory of his career came at Churchill Downs last October. That’s the best we’ve got.
Why he can’t win: Trainer Kenny McPeek didn’t want to run this colt in the Kentucky Derby but was overruled by his owners. “Derby Fever” rarely gets rewarded.
Why he can win: Perhaps the most versatile colt in the field, he’s won at four different tracks and done so with varying styles. And if it rains, he’s 2 for 2 on an off track.
Why he can’t win: Seemed to take a step back when finishing third in the Arkansas Derby. Horse racing could use a story like
72-year-old trainer Lonnie Briley winning the Kentucky Derby, but the sport recently hasn’t been that lucky.
Why he can win: He’s always coming late, which could be the perfect scenario in a race that always has plenty of speed. With the Metallica angle to his name and his striking gray coat, he’ll be a fan favorite.
Why he can’t win: His three races at Churchill Downs were the three slowest of his career. Granted, all three came as a 2-year-old, but it’s a hard trend to overlook.
Why he can win: He’s the No. 2 betting choice in the morning line (5-1) and is a major threat. His backers love the way he was charging at the end of the Florida Derby and figure the longer stretch at Churchill Downs will be a benefit.
Why he can’t win: Trainer Bill Mott hasn’t had much luck in this race, his only win coming via disqualification with Country House in 2019. And that No. 18 post isn’t ideal.
Why he can win: Never worse than second in four career starts and could be ready to take another step forward.
Why he can’t win: This $2,500 purchase has already exceeded expectations. Seems a step below in class and speed.
Why he can win: Throw out the sixth-place finish in the Blue Grass and he’s never finished worse than second. Seems to like it at Churchill Downs with a win and a second in two starts.
Why he can’t win: Son of Speightstown likely wants no part of the 1 ¼-mile distance. Losing Ortiz Jr. as his jockey won’t help.
Why he can win: Lost to Journalism by less than a length in the Santa Anita Derby and figures to improve off that finish. Has a big shot if he gets in the field.
Why he can’t win: Late bloomer was foaled on May 13, 2022, and probably still needs some seasoning. Probably won’t be at his best until the summer.
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; . Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
