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Marco Raya ’s ascent through the Twins’ system has been meteoric, but his 2025 performance has been equally dramatic in the opposite direction. After years of tightly controlled workloads, his 2025 performance has been disastrous. At this juncture, the Twins must acknowledge that Raya’s future isn’t in the rotation, and a shift to the bullpen is logical and overdue. Rapid Promotions Mask UncertaintySince being drafted in 2020, Raya’s six-pitch arsenal has made him one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects. However, his smaller frame (6-foot-1, 170 pounds) made the Twins systematically capped his outings. Most starts from 2022–2023 were five innings or fewer, followed by a cautious bump to five innings in select late-2024 outings. This conservative approach stemmed from Raya’s 2021 shoulder strain, during which Twins development staff prioritized long-term health over short-term success. The result was no significant setbacks but also no true test of his stamina against lineups multiple times. Paradoxically, while Raya’s pitch counts were restrained, his ascent through the minors was swift. After dominating High-A Cedar Rapids, he graduated to Double-A Wichita mid-2023, and later in 2024 made a brief Triple-A cameo before his contract was added to the 40-man roster in November. This rapid promotion was a clear signal of the Twins’ belief in his high ceiling. Yet that rapid climb never fully answered whether his repertoire could maintain bite deeper into games or if his body could adapt to extended starts. 2024: The Harbinger of Confidence
Despite workload caps, Raya’s 2024 numbers hinted at genuine promise. Across 97 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 4.05 ERA, a 24.6% strikeout rate, and a 10.5% walk rate. Those metrics underscored his swing-and-miss stuff, particularly his plus mid-80s slider. His four-seam fastball regularly registered in the mid-90s, touching 97 mph, and both ride and sink variants averaged over 94 mph, offering a solid base for continued growth. Encouraged by that profile, the Twins gradually loosened the leash late in 2024, allowing Raya to eclipse five innings in five of his last seven starts. This shift represented a turning point: the organization was signaling readiness to test him as a bona fide starter, armed with data suggesting his arsenal could play beyond limited stints. It was a positive end to the season for a player who was only 21-years old. 2025: A Statistical Implosion
In his first seven outings of 2025, Raya has been charged with 21 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings, translating to a 12.06 ERA which is an unsustainable level for any rotation hopeful. His walk tally stands at 18, more free passes than strikeouts (17), driving his walk-rate to 19.4% compared to 10.5% last year. Meanwhile, his K-rate has cratered by 6.3 percentage points, an alarming sign that his once-electric slider and fastball aren’t missing bats like they used to. Beyond the walks and missed bats, opponents are punishing Raya’s mistakes. Through seven games, batters are hitting .431/.533/.556 with a 1.088 OPS that ranks among the worst marks for any starter at any level this season. When a pitcher is yielding more walks than strikeouts and allowing hits at a near-45% clip. There may be some small sample size caveats, but he’s shown few positive signs in any outing. Why Relief Is the Only Viable Path
1. Simplifying the Arsenal
Raya’s six-pitch mix has allowed him to be successful in the past, but his command inconsistencies in 2025 suggest he’s better suited to focusing on a two- or three-pitch repertoire out of the bullpen. In shorter outings, he can lean on his four-seam fastball (already touching the upper 90s) and his plus slider, the latter being the pitch that has been his best in the past. Concentrating on his best offerings could unlock more downhill arm speed and sharpen the break of his secondary pitches. 2. The Bulldozer Role
In relief, Raya’s heater could tick upward, potentially hitting the upper 90s, a velocity boost that would add an extra dimension to his profile. The slider, which graded as a plus pitch in 2024, would morph into a true weapon if thrown with the fire and conviction only shorter stints can provide. Given his current struggles to navigate batting order turns, a “bulldozer” relief role (one inning of max-effort, swing-and-miss stuff) feels tailor-made. Raya’s journey has been marked by tantalizing highs and cautious development, but the 2025 results leave little doubt: his path to MLB impact must diverge from the rotation. The Twins owe it to one of their top prospects to realign expectations and harness his best qualities in the bullpen. By embracing a relief role, Raya can rebuild confidence, increase velocity, and reestablish his slider as an elite offering. For a pitcher whose future has long been in question, this change is a strategic pivot toward realizing his undeniable upside. Is it time to move Raya to the bullpen? Leave a comment and start the discussion. Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!
